YC - TO (3) was my pick because Poland plays aggressively, especially in home matches, while Malta often commits fouls trying to contain stronger opponents. The referee may also intervene actively, considering the difference in the teams' class.
Lewandowski and the team are playing against Malta; I don't see much point in elaborating. The Poles are 2, even 3 heads stronger. The teams are of different levels, and scoring 2 unanswered goals will not be difficult. Most likely, it will be a rout, something like 3:0 or 4:0.
Lately, the home team have been grinding out wins, as in their last game against Lithuania. Here, the team is even weaker defensively but decent in attack, although the home team have already had a couple of matches with clean-sheet wins (conceding 0.6 per game), which is what I expect in this game.
Pre-Match Facts
Motivation
Poland - 3.5/10
Status in the current match - clear favourite
Poland1.94
Draw2.5
Malta5.13
Next match - in 74 days, against a clear underdog
Poland1.264
Draw5.56
Moldova13.1
Malta - 3/10
Status in the current match - clear underdog
Poland1.94
Draw2.5
Malta5.13
Next match - in 75 days, against a fierce rival
Malta2.808
Draw2.68
Lithuania3.315
Injuries & suspensions
The home side will be without several first-team players, including midfielder Пётр Зелиньский. The squad is also missing several rotation players, with one more player a doubt. The away side will be missing a first-team player - defender Зак Мускат, and are also missing several rotation players.
Referee statistics
The referee for this match is Мортен Крог (Denmark). Over the last 100 matches, he has shown 399 yellow cards (averaging 4 per match) and 13 red cards (averaging 0.1 per match), so he cannot be considered overly strict. He has awarded a penalty in 34% of matches (34 out of 100).